Rafael Ramirez, who leads the Oxford Scenarios Programme, advises that in doing this you disaggregate transactional actors, which you can influence or control, from environmental forces, which you cannot. Translation of information/heuristics into action: Once information has been extracted, it is interpreted and translated into action (with more or less strength and success). Victor Vahidi Motti . In: Tsoukas H, Shepherd J (eds) Managing the future: Foresight in the knowledge economy. MIT Press. Although no one can question that this is the mainstream way of interpreting anticipation (i.e., that such a mode of anticipation still prevails in the practices and discourses of R&D governance) and that it can clearly engender the problems identified by Nordmann, it is precisely this mode of anticipation that AG and RI reject or dispute and aim to respond to via other modes of anticipating. Well send you a link to a feedback form. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijfip.2013.058612, Nordmann A (2014) Responsible innovation, the art and craft of anticipation. Futures, 42(10), 10401048. An anticipatory disposition is not about seeing into the future (prudence) or saying what the future is going to be (prediction) or estimating the chances of a certain outcome (probabilistic forecasting) [61] (emphasis added). https://doi.org/10.1016/s0160-791x(01)00047-1, Grunwald A (2019) The inherently democratic nature of technology assessment. Foresight - definition of foresight by The Free Dictionary In other words, the previous problems arise when the responsibilisation of anticipation is focused on assuring a minimum epistemic and normative quality of the FSs that are used to guide our actions in the present. Each of these modes of anticipation involves the generation of different socio-epistemic dynamics and they can provide differentiated heuristics. Anticipation refers to creating systems which involve foresight and understand the dynamics of uncertainty and change, especially in relation to future risks, opportunities and innovations. Sources of Futures Studies from Foresight to Anticipation By contrast, the latter two criticisms areraised inResponsible Innovation, the Art and Craft of Anticipation[19] and were specifically targeted against anticipation (understood in a predictivist sense) as a tool for AG and RI. Towards a repertoire for technology assessment. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139168. Ongoing Military Transformation, Leading to NATO 2030 - Multi-Domain Gidley, J. As nouns the difference between foresight and anticipation is that foresight is the ability to foresee or prepare wisely for the future while anticipation is the act of anticipating, taking up, placing, or considering something beforehand, or before the proper time in natural order. Futures, 71, 132145. Even before the Covid-19 crisis, rapid technological change, growing economic interdependence, and mounting political instability had conspired to make the future increasingly murky. For instance David H. Guston, a renowned architect of AG, has dedicated some words to addressing Nordmanns criticisms on speculative ethics, see [14] (pp. Forecasting involves making probabilistic predictions about the future and, as such, is a tool that practitioners of strategic foresight tend to avoid. Echoing previous proposals (e.g., [62]), AG and RI endorse a concept of responsibility that is considered future-oriented and normatively procedural in character (i.e., it is not based on substantive norms or values). The considered branching points related to issues or events that might be disruptive are subsequently used to (re)configure the standing strategies or goals in order to avoiding risks, increase the resilience, and/or optimise our present actions towards/against the (partial or total) potential materialisation of an FS. In Responsible Innovation, the Art and Craft of Anticipation[19], Nordmann raises diverse concerns about anticipation and concludes that it is not necessary for AG and/or RI. Nano Ethics. In particular, he considers that anticipatory practices, when performed under certain conditions, may (i) reify certain future perspectives (e.g., reproducing deterministic visions) (The If and Then Syndrome: Speculative Ethics and Reifying Futures), (ii) diminish our ability to see what is happening (Anticipations May Diminish Our Ability to See what is Happening), and/or (iii) reproduce the illusion of having control over the future (Anticipations May (Re)produce an Illusion of Control Over the Future). Despite the possible existence of common and shared normative and empirical stances (both of which are often intertwined [127]), it seems reasonable to expect that many of these will diverge. Masini, E. B., Samset, K. (1975). No regrets, but what do you expect in a company called Foresight? This article aims to advance the theoretical characterisation and problematisation of anticipation as a legitimised heterogeneous interventive tool for AG and RI (i.e., for encouraging a more inclusive and responsive development of NESTs). Grebenyuk, A., Pikalova, A., Sokolov, A., Shashnov, S., & Kaivo-oja, J. On the contrary, it is a means for exploring the potential theoretical limits of certain ways of executing each mode of anticipation that is considered valuable for AG and/or RI in the face of these possible shortcomings. Confronted with this illusion, Nordmann stresses that instead of promoting anticipation, we need to emphasise the contingency that constitutes the co-evolution of socio-technical systems [19] (p. 89). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2834-1_12, Guston DH (2014) Understanding anticipatory governance. Soc Stud Sci 44(2):218242. Anticipation (Convergent thinking) Key Practice Specialtie s and Communities for Adaptive Foresight. As such, their objective is not to provide knowledge of the future, but to open up the plurality of plausible and desirable paths that could be considered within present socio-technical co-construction processes. How users of scenarios assess uncertain futures. It is now very similar to risk management. In fact, the emergence of the critical-hermeneutic approach can be read in the light of the attempt to evade and respond to the misuses of the future that underlie the above criticisms (which explains why Nordmann himself is an advocate of this mode of anticipation). A contingency plan provides a playbook in case of emergency. These two dimensions can increase the robustiness of policymaking and reinforce strategy building, long-term relevance, preparendess and inclusiveness. (2016). Strategic foresight is a structured and systematic way of using ideas about the future to anticipate and better prepare for change. The success of the exploratory anticipatory heuristics will largely depend on the level of reflection on the dynamics that underlie (and constitute) these socio-epistemic activitieswhich in turn may depend on many other variables, such as the actors involved (and the relations established between them). In the long run youll reap the greatest value from scenario exercises by establishing an iterative cyclethat is, a process that continually orients your organization toward the future while keeping an eye on the present, and vice versa. London: Routledge. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 3761. Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License; The ability to foresee or prepare wisely for the future. One important element of the practice is scenario planning, which helps leaders navigate uncertainty by teaching them how to anticipate possible futures while still operating in the present. However, the emphasis on the limiting role of (im)plausibility and (un)desirabilityregardless of how relevant and important this isneeds to be complemented by also paying attention to the other function that these criteria (aim to or could) play: the reflective or disruptive one. As mentioned in the Introduction, I would like to concentrate here on Alfred Nordmanns assessments concerning the uses of the future to foster responsibility in R&D. In a landscape where, as Nordmann notes, actors are trying to persuade each other of what to take seriously [18] (p. 130), the existence of exclusion mechanisms (e.g., epistemic [131] or argumentative [132, 133] injustices) and power dynamics that permeate and shape the discursive spaces [134] should be the focus for responsibilising anticipations. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2229-5_9, von Schomberg R, Guimares Pereira , Funtowicz S (2005) Deliberating foresight knowledge for policy and foresight knowledge assessment. Futures 134, 102852, Fischer N, Dannenberg S (2021) The social construction of futures. As Boenink [2] (p. 157) notes, some techniques may be more likely to produce reifications than others; yet, there is always some room within explorative anticipatorytechniques for steering criticaldiscourses which can help to avoid the reification of certain FSs. As listed in Table 1, the two intermediate stages were megatrends, explorations, and anticipation and risk, uncertainty, and, again, anticipation.Each time the analysis goes deeper, the first term of the triads gathers the aspects most explicitly related to the . Evolving cultural identities in a planetary era. Thats the fundamental question leaders must ask as they prepare for the future. Technology Foresight does just that: it explores what the future might look like and how technologies and innovations might develop, including their societal impact. Its important to explicitly articulate the assumptions in your current strategy and what future you expect will result from its implementation. If companies want to make effective strategy in the face of uncertainty, they need to set up a process of constant explorationone that allows top managers to build permanent but flexible bridges between their actions in the present and their thinking about the future. https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead, Cornelius P, Van de Putte A, Romani M (2005) Three decades of scenario planning in Shell. Similarly, some authors suggest that activities based on this critical-hermeneutic approach could contribute to the promotion of futures literacy [67]. The essentials of futures studies are introduced for graduate level researchers who want to begin and to pursue a career in futures studies and anticipation. These anticipatory practices have a clear normative force that lies in their capacity to fix the future paths and objectives towards which present R&D actions should (not) be oriented. It is shown that in consecutive waves, human time consciousness has evolved from prediction to forecast to foresight and eventually to anticipation and shaping the future. Foresight | SpringerLink Each future world was given a name intended to capture its essence. Find out about the major methods used to build scenarios. This anticipatory modus operandi prevails in mainstream risk assessment practices and, as briefly mentioned in NESTs Responsibilisation and the Call for Anticipation: Anticipatory Governance and Responsible Innovation, it was considered functional within classic TA approaches. The eagerness associated with waiting for something to occur. The information generated can subsequently help to ground more self-reflective and informed ways of performing anticipatory practices and developing a political economy of the future. The prospect of organizing a scenario exercise can intimidate the uninitiated. This vagueness and unresolved character affect (and simultaneously are affected by faintly detailed characterisations of) anticipation: What kind of procedural socio-epistemic mechanisms are (not) considered when characterising anticipation in the foundational texts of these frameworks? And in many uncertain situations managers do, in fact, turn to historical analogy to anticipate the future. When situations lack analogies to the past, its hard to envision the future. Int J Foresight Innov Policy. In this respect, the integration of a critical-hermeneutic approach in the undertaking of exploratory exercises, as Nordmann notes, would be particularly helpful. Organizations dont just prepare for the future. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation. Res Policy 48(5):10911097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.05.008, Owen R, Pansera M (2019) Responsible innovation and responsible research and innovation. In: Hackett EJ, Amsterdamska O, Lynch M, Wajcman J (eds) The handbook of science and technology studies, third edition. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7Bn-eBPZZX7Ty1fS3JsMTFqbjQ/view. Think of this scenario as your projected scenariobut recognize that its just one of many possible futures, and focus on determining which assumptions it would be helpful to revisit. For example, the FSs serving as substrates can be understood from fixed and de facto achievable targets, to FSs whose function is merely heuristic (i.e., as regulative ideal targets). Pan Standford Pub, Singapore, pp 187217, Inayatullah S (1998) Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Google Scholar, Boenink M (2013) Anticipating the future of technology and society by way of (plausible) scenarios: Fruitful, futile or fraught with danger. Island Press, Washington, D.C. Dupuy J-P (2007) Complexity and uncertainty: A prudential approach to nanotechnology. What interests and power dynamics do FSs reflect and reproduce? It takes strength to stand up against the tyranny of the present and invest in imagination. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham Northampton, MA, pp 2648, Chapter Futures, 37(5), 361369. However, these responses did not explicitly provide a basic conceptualisation and theoretical categorisation of modes of anticipation and a discussion of the value of their respective possible accompanying heuristics for AG and RI, as is my intention here.Footnote 1. When the Coast Guard decided to launch Long View, it enlisted the help of the Futures Strategy Group (FSG), a consultancy specializing in scenario planning. Futures, 30(23), 126127. Eur J Educ. Ambidexterity requires managers to somehow resolve this paradox. In: Hansson SO (ed) The ethics of technology: Methods and approaches. Both Nordmanns narrow characterisation of anticipation and the lack of an explicit basic systematisation of what modes of anticipation exist point to an ongoing need to problematise how anticipation can (and/or should) be understood within AG and RI, and to adequately address the challenges arising from its theoretical characterisation and practical operationalisation. Albany, NY, pp 3549, Godin B (2006) The linear model of innovation: The historical construction of an analytical framework. Strategic foresightthe history, theory, and practice of which I have spent years researchingoffers a way forward. In addition, intuitions about the concept of anticipation are in general poor (the mainstream way of approaching the future is as an arena awaiting to be epistemically conquered or strategically designed). In anticipatory governance (AG) and responsible innovation (RI), anticipation is a key theoretical and practical dimension for promoting a more responsible governance of new and emerging sciences and technologies. Futures 22(2):115141. The development of some standards to evaluate the information, values, and the reasoning/argumentative processes that support the attribution of (un)desirability and (im)plausibility seems to be of central importance. The ethical and social implications of nanotechnology. Some of the key questions areFootnote 6: What meanings are attributed to FSs? Another noteworthy aspect of CTA is that it not only incorporated anticipation as a non-predictivist interventive tool, but also considered anticipatory dynamics (e.g., expectations, visions, future imaginaries) as a constitutive guiding force in science and technology co-production processes: Co-production processes include anticipation. Strategic Foresight and Warning is an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future that aims at allowing policy-makers and decision-makers to take decisions with sufficient lead time to see those decisions implemented at best. Also classic works in the literature, which are essential reading for a graduate level beginner, are briefly reviewed. In a similar way, the guidelines for action derived from these exercises can be interpreted from rigid norms (which must be strictly adhered to and whose effective safeguarding can lead us towards a fixed future), to flexible orientations (which define some practical options for action, but do not guarantee the achievement of the desired future target). In: Marchant GE, Allenby BR, Herkert JR (eds) The growing gap between emerging technologies and legal-ethical oversight: The pacing problem. Bell, W. (1997). One of the rare exceptions is the U.S. Coast Guard, which describes its work with scenario planning as part of a cycle of strategic renewal. As such, it offers a model that many organizations can learn from. In short, he is sceptical about the possibility of knowing what will be the case, and his comments warn of the various shortcomings that a governance based on this aspiration to know about what will happen could have. Association of Professional Futurists (APF). Its aim is not to predict the future but rather to make it possible to imagine multiple futures in creative ways that heighten our ability to sense, shape, and adapt to what happens in the years ahead. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718803721, Mittelstadt BD, Stahl BC, Fairweather NB (2015) How to shape a better future? Moreover, even when the option to transform the tension produced by diversity and divergence into a productive and creative social learning exists, the procedural/formal nature of AG and RI and anticipatory exercises does not provide a mechanism for assessing the legitimacy of the judgements that might support the different options [90]. On the other hand, the Collingridge dilemma (1980)which is widely mentioned and often wrongly conceived as a problem to be overcome [30]stressed our epistemic precariousness when trying to influence technological change (given the recognition of its indeterminate and non-lineal character): It is precisely at the stage of development when we are most likely to influence R&D in order to avoid technologys uncritical entrenchment, or lock-in [31], that uncertainty and ignorance obstruct the possibility of illuminating the possible consequences and action horizons that might arise from them [32]. Motti, V. V., & Masoumi, M. (2016). An if-and-then statement opens by suggesting a possible technological development and continues with a consequence that demands immediate attention. When the explorations are accomplished through collective and deliberative processesi.e., including different societal actors (presumably with different framings, knowledge, values, feelings)the different set of values and assumptions involved may lead to the projection of different FSs, some of which may be compatible, while others might be incompatible or even incommensurable.

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